2022 World Cup Predictions
Leading up to the Qatar 2022 World Cup, there were many predictions made about which team would win the tournament. Previous World Cup predictions have generally been not accurate, which is not unexpected for the highly competitive sport of football.
World Cup predictions use various methods, such as analyzing bookmaker odds, using recent results and statistics, and player and team rankings.
Table of 2022 Predictions
The predicted winner was almost unanimously Brazil, who were unexpectedly defeated in by Croatia in the quarter finals. The eventual winner, Argentina, were predicted to finish third or fourth by a couple of models, defeating France who were more fancied.
| Prediction Model | First | Second | Third | Fourth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA rankings (23 June 2022) | Brazil | Belgium | Argentina | France |
| FiveThirtyEight (16 Nov) | Brazil (22%) | Spain (11%) | France (9%) | Argentina (8%) |
| The Analyst (15 June 2022) | France (18%) | Brazil (16%) | Spain (12%) | England (8%) |
| Turing AI Model (18 Nov 2022) | Brazil (25%) | Belgium (19%) | Argentina (13%) | France (11%) |
| Las Vegas Superbook (2018) | Brazil (6-1) | France (7-1) | Germany (7-1) | Spain (8-1) |
| Skybet (April 2022) | Brazil (11-2) | France (6-1) | England (13-2) | Spain (7-1) |
| Smarkets (5 Aug 2022) | Brazil (6.4-1) | France (7.6-1) | England (8-1) | Argentina (9.2-1) |
| Oddschecker (5 Aug 2022) | Brazil (4.3-1) | France (6.5-1) | England (8-1) | Argentina (8-1) |
Prediction References
- FiveThirtyEight - a prediction using FiveThirtyEight's SPI ratings, based on an offensive and defensive rating to give an estimate of a team's overall strength. fivethirtyeight.com
- Las Vegas Superbook (2018) - sports betting agency Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released odds for the 2022 World Cup immediately after the completion of the 2018 World Cup
- The Analyst - A supercomputer prediction model is based on simulating the outcome of the tournament thousands of times https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/06/predicting-2022-world-cup-winner-france-brazil-spain
- Turing AI Model - an artificial intelligence model from The Alan Turing Institute using results of previous international matches, and takes into consideration parameters such as a team's attack strength, defence strength and home advantage, and uses Bayesian statistics to calculate the most likely scoreline for a given match. www.turing.ac.uk
Related Pages
- Other World Cup Predictions
- Results Qatar 2022
- Olympic Games medal predictions
- Winter Olympics Medal Predictions
Any comments, suggestions, or corrections? Please let us know.
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